PSD and the case of the missing energy savings

A house can save thirty percent of its energy and still disappoint everyone involved. The trick is in the starting number. If a computer assumes the house used far more energy than it actually did, a perfectly respectable percentage becomes an extravagant promise. The insulation may be doing its job. The arithmetic has already let the customer down.

This was the puzzle behind a NYSERDA-funded study performed by Performance Systems Development, better known as PSD. Researchers retrospectively examined more than 2,000 homes improved through New York’s Home Performance with ENERGY STAR program. Their consequential finding concerned the baseline: matching a model to actual utility bills mattered enormously to the accuracy of its savings prediction.

For an energy efficiency company, that is an unusually useful origin for a conversation. Before discussing the equipment, ask whether the starting number deserves to be believed. PSD’s business connects that question to the less glamorous machinery of climate work: contractor training, building inspections, program rules, software, and rebates.

The bill gets a vote

The study covered retrofits from 2007 through 2011. It found that median predicted and actual percentage savings were closely aligned; inflated baseline simulations helped explain the shortfall in absolute savings. Calibration under the ANSI/BPI-2400 standard offered a practical correction. It also allowed simpler models and potentially faster reviews. More detail was not automatically the same thing as better information.

That finding gives readers something to copy. Establish what a building actually consumes before promising what an improvement will save. Then make the calibration part of the approval process. The lesson applies beyond houses: a forecast built on an inflated starting point can make competent work look like failure.

PSD’s roots precede that research. Founder Greg Thomas formed Greg Thomas and Associates in 1995; PSD’s origin account dates its formal formation to 1998. Its early work included energy designs for Ecovillage at Ithaca. In 2000, NYSERDA funding helped launch TREAT, the Targeted Retrofit Energy Analysis Tool. The company developed around buildings as interacting systems, where heating equipment, insulation, ventilation, and human behavior belong in the same conversation. That history helps explain its mix of specialists. Software developers work alongside engineers, trainers, and program administrators, bringing the practical requirements of a field inspection into the same business as the calculations behind a savings estimate.

Follow the rebate

Consider the trip from a homeowner’s application to a utility’s payment. Someone must check the account, confirm that equipment qualifies, collect field information, calculate savings, review quality, and authorize money. Multiply those handoffs across contractors and programs, and administration becomes a substantial part of delivering efficiency.

Compass, PSD’s enterprise software, organizes that trip. It supports customer portals, contractor permissions, field data, savings calculations, project tracking, quality checks, and incentive processing. Buildings can accumulate multiple jobs across programs, while automated checks help prevent redundant participation. Its integration with Salesforce connects outreach and reporting to the program workflow.

The buyers are utilities, agencies, municipalities, and program implementers. Compass can be purchased directly or bundled into an implementation delivered by PSD or a partner. The commercial offer combines software with program delivery, engineering, quality assurance, and training. A buyer is commissioning a working process with specialists behind it.

Compared with a stand-alone modeling tool or a general customer database, PSD’s distinguishing proposition is the connection between building physics and program operations. That combination puts it between energy engineering, utility implementation, and enterprise software. Its October 2026 leadership announcement says it supports more than 30 energy efficiency programs nationally.

A heat pump needs a house plan

The same logic carries into electrification. A heat pump’s performance depends on the building it serves. Improve the envelope and the heating requirement changes; select equipment without considering that change and a contractor may miss an opportunity to size the system appropriately.

PSD’s Clarity Heat Pump Toolkit brings field data collection, weatherization analysis, load sizing, equipment selection, and heat pump savings calculations together. It connects equipment selection to the Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships cold-climate heat pump database. In February 2025, PSD announced federal approval for the toolkit under the HOMES rebate program’s modeled pathway, including modeling accuracy and utility-bill calibration requirements.

One concrete application is close to home. In January 2023, PSD and Sustainable Finger Lakes announced support for heat pumps in 100 lower-income rental units in the City and Town of Ithaca. The plan paired installations with PSD modeling to strengthen confidence in savings. That figure described the project’s intended reach, rather than a tally of completed installations.

The cost question has two parts: paying for the tools and paying to develop them. Compass is sold through a scoped enterprise engagement. For research infrastructure, a 2015 DOE announcement described a $1 million award to PSD and partners for the OpenEfficiency Initiative. PSD also announced DOE SBIR Phase II support in 2021 and 2024. Those awards funded development work; they are not customer price tags.

The people behind the calculations

National Grid’s May 2025 arrangement makes the service side tangible. PSD would build and manage a professional network across the utility’s New York service areas, supporting contractors with training, communications, and resources. The intended customers span commercial, industrial, residential, and multifamily buildings. Better equipment still needs people who can navigate the program.

Inside PSD, technical specialist Robby Oakley describes days divided between desk reviews and field visits, including blower-door testing and trips through basements and attics. The company’s published benefits include remote work, a four-percent retirement-plan match, and unlimited sick time. The culture it describes prizes sharing expertise.

“QA shouldn’t be punitive.”Robby Oakley / Senior Technical Specialist

The products are changing. New TREAT single-family license sales ended in January 2025; new multifamily licenses and support renewals ended in June 2026. Meanwhile, PSD announced that Kathy Greely would retire as CEO at year-end 2026, with Emelie Cuppernell Glitch becoming CEO and Josh Huber-Honigman becoming president and COO in January 2027.

PSD’s approach asks something of its customers. Calibration needs usable consumption data. A configured workflow needs participants who submit reliable information. Engineering still has to meet the building in the field. For organizations managing those dependencies, the attraction is clear: give the model, the contractor, and the rebate administrator a way to agree on what happened.