Breaking
ECONOMIST WALKS INTO A BROTHEL - AND COMES OUT WITH A RISK FRAMEWORK * NEW BOOK 'WORTH THE RISK' DUE FROM YALE UNIVERSITY PRESS, SEPT 2026 * "IF YOU DON'T HEAR NO REGULARLY, YOU AREN'T ASKING FOR ENOUGH" * SENIOR FELLOW, MANHATTAN INSTITUTE / COLUMNIST, BLOOMBERG OPINION *
Economist - Author - Risk Whisperer

AllisonSchrager

She got a PhD to study retirement at 23. Then she went looking for risk in the places economists never visit - and started taking notes.

Allison Schrager
The face of someone about to ask a difficult question on purpose.
The Beat

Most economists model risk. She goes and stands in it.

A pimp once told Allison Schrager that if she wasn't hearing the word "no" on a regular basis, she wasn't asking for enough. She had walked into a legal Nevada brothel to study how the people there negotiate price under pressure. She walked out with the organizing idea of her career.

Today Schrager is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist, and a contributing editor at City Journal. The shorthand is "risk economist," which undersells the strangeness of the job. She has interviewed big-wave surfers about wipeouts, paparazzi about the math of a single lucky shot, horse breeders about long-shot bloodlines, magicians, poker players, movie producers, and soldiers. The premise is simple and slightly subversive: the people who handle risk best rarely have economics degrees, and the people with economics degrees rarely have to bet their own lives on being right.

Her training is conventional even if her field reporting is not. An undergraduate degree from the University of Edinburgh, then a PhD in economics from Columbia. Early on she consulted for the OECD and the IMF, the kind of institutions that produce footnoted reports about pension solvency. Then she went to Dimensional Fund Advisors to lead retirement product innovation, where she worked alongside the Nobel laureate Robert Merton - one of the architects of modern options pricing. That collaboration matters: it is where the abstract machinery of financial risk met the very human problem of not running out of money before you die.

The pivot to journalism came at Quartz, where she covered economics for a general audience and discovered she was good at it. She could take a concept like the equity risk premium and make it land for a reader who would never use the phrase. The voice that emerged is dry, curious, and allergic to jargon. She has since written for the Economist, Reuters, Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Wired, National Review - and Playboy, a byline range that is itself a small act of risk-taking.

The breakthrough was the 2018 book "An Economist Walks into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk." It does what the title promises. Five principles for handling uncertainty, illustrated not by spreadsheets but by people whose livelihoods depend on pricing danger correctly. The book argues that risk is not the enemy of a good life - mismanaged risk is, and so is the refusal to take any. A surfer who never paddles out catches no waves. A saver who hides everything in cash quietly loses to inflation. The trick is knowing how much exposure is the right amount, and that question turns out to be the same whether you are at a card table or planning for old age.

Her current preoccupation is what she sees as a society quietly losing its nerve. Across her Bloomberg columns and her Substack newsletter "Known Unknowns," a thesis keeps surfacing: Americans are taking fewer risks - starting fewer companies, moving less, hedging more - at exactly the moment when the upside of a smart bet has rarely been larger. A too-safe economy, in her telling, is not a stable one. It is a stagnant one. That argument becomes a book of its own in September 2026, when Yale University Press publishes "Worth the Risk," a case against the creeping risk-aversion she believes is throttling personal and economic potential.

What makes her readable is that she never pretends risk is only a chart. She treats it as a fact of being alive that everyone is already managing, usually badly and usually without admitting it. The retirement saver, the founder, the person deciding whether to ask for the raise - all of them are running the same calculation the brothel taught her. The only question is whether they are honest about the odds.

By the Numbers
5Risk principles in the brothel book
2Books on risk (and counting)
1Nobel laureate collaborator
10+Publications she's bylined
Field Notes

The unexpected places she went looking

Negotiation

The Brothel

Where she learned that an absence of rejection is a warning sign, not a comfort - you're playing too small.

Tail risk

The Surf Break

Big-wave surfers taught her about catastrophic downside and why the best ones obsess over the wipeout, not the ride.

Long shots

The Card Table

Poker pros, paparazzi and horse breeders - professionals who price improbable payoffs for a living.

Institutions

The OECD & IMF

Before the fieldwork, the footnotes: consulting on pensions and solvency for the world's policy machinery.

Markets

Dimensional & Merton

Designing retirement products beside a Nobel laureate - where options theory met the fear of outliving your money.

The page

Bloomberg & Beyond

From Quartz to a column read by markets - translating risk for people who'd never say "risk premium" out loud.

The Arc

From footnotes to fieldwork

EDUCATION
University of Edinburgh undergraduate, then a PhD in economics from Columbia University.
EARLY CAREER
Consults for international institutions including the OECD and the IMF on pensions and public finance.
FINANCE
Leads retirement product innovation at Dimensional Fund Advisors, collaborating with Nobel laureate Robert Merton.
2010s
Becomes an economics journalist at Quartz and co-founds risk advisory firm LifeCycle Finance Partners.
2018
Publishes "An Economist Walks into a Brothel" - the book that fuses financial theory with field reporting.
2019
Delivers her TEDx talk, "How to Know When You Are Taking Enough Risk."
NOW
Senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Bloomberg Opinion columnist, City Journal contributing editor, and author of the "Known Unknowns" newsletter.
SEPT 2026
"Worth the Risk" arrives from Yale University Press - her case against a society that's lost its nerve.
Watch

In her own words

Her TEDx talk distills the whole project into one uncomfortable question - the kind she's built a career on asking.

WATCH: "How to Know When You Are Taking Enough Risk" - TEDxSanAntonio
Marginalia

Things that don't fit the resume

01

The book title is not a metaphor. An economist really did walk into a brothel - for research.

02

She has bylined both Foreign Affairs and Playboy. Few writers can claim that spread.

03

Her newsletter is called "Known Unknowns" - a wink at risk's most quotable phrase.

04

She became fascinated by retirement at 23, an age when most people are fascinated by anything but.

05

Undergrad in Scotland, doctorate in New York - the academic version of paddling out past the break.

06

She worked beside a Nobel Prize winner designing the products meant to keep you from going broke in old age.