# Zvi Mowshowitz

> Zvi Mowshowitz is a writer, AI safety analyst, and former professional Magic: The Gathering player. He is best known for his Substack newsletter 'Don't Worry About the Vase,' which publishes detailed weekly AI updates and rationalist commentary to over 33,000 subscribers. Inducted into the Magic: The Gathering Pro Tour Hall of Fame in 2007, Zvi is also the founder of nonprofit policy think tank Balsa Research and co-founded MetaMed, a personalized medical research firm backed by Peter Thiel. He is a prominent voice in the rationalist and AI safety communities, known for his p(doom) estimates of 60-70% and his systematic, data-driven approach to understanding AI risk.

- **Role:** Author at Don't Worry About the Vase (Substack)
- **Organizations:** Don't Worry About the Vase (Substack), Balsa Research, InterPop, MetaMed, Jane Street Capital, Wizards of the Coast (R&D intern), Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR)
- **From:** New York, USA
- **Nationality:** American
- **Education:** Bachelor's in Mathematics, Columbia University
- **Known for:** Magic: The Gathering Pro Tour Hall of Fame inductee (Class of 2007), Pro Tour Tokyo 2001 Champion, 1999 Magic World Champion (U.S. National Team)

## Career timeline

- **1998** — Pro Tour debut at Pro Tour Los Angeles
- **1999** — Won the Magic: The Gathering World Championships as part of the U.S. National Team
- **2001** — Won Pro Tour Tokyo with deck 'The Solution'
- **2003** — Won Grand Prix New Orleans and Grand Prix Pittsburgh
- **2004** — Voted into the Magic Invitational
- **2005** — Worked as developer intern at Wizards of the Coast R&D
- **2007** — Inducted into the Magic: The Gathering Pro Tour Hall of Fame
- **~2010s** — Worked as trader at Jane Street Capital
- **2012** — Co-founded MetaMed, personalized medical research firm (backed by Peter Thiel)
- **~2015** — MetaMed shut down; founding of Balsa Research nonprofit think tank
- **2020** — Launched 'Don't Worry About the Vase' Substack newsletter; began covering COVID-19 pandemic
- **2020** — Joined InterPop as Director of Innovation; co-conceived Emergents TCG
- **2022** — Newsletter pivots to heavy AI safety focus
- **2023** — Appeared at Manifest 2023 forecasting conference
- **2024** — Major podcast circuit including 80,000 Hours, Cognitive Revolution, EconTalk; spoke at Seminars at Steamboat
- **2025** — Published 2025 State of AI Report and 2025 Year in Review
- **2026** — Continues weekly AI newsletter (AI #163+); planning more long-form evergreen posts

## Achievements

- Magic: The Gathering Pro Tour Hall of Fame inductee (Class of 2007)
- Pro Tour Tokyo 2001 Champion
- 1999 Magic World Champion (U.S. National Team)
- Grand Prix New Orleans 2003 Champion
- Grand Prix Pittsburgh 2003 Champion (team Illuminati)
- 4 Pro Tour Top 8 finishes; 8+ Grand Prix Top 8 finishes
- Over $141,000 in career Magic prize earnings (top ~15 all-time)
- 236 lifetime Pro Points (top 20 all-time)
- Credited with breaking more engine cards than any other Magic player in history
- Pioneer of iconic Magic decks: TurboLand, My Fires, The Solution
- 33,000+ Substack subscribers making him one of the most-read independent AI analysts
- Co-founded MetaMed with Peter Thiel backing
- Founded Balsa Research policy think tank
- Board of Directors, Center for Applied Rationality (CFAR)

## Latest updates

- **2026-04** — Publishing AI weekly newsletter issues (AI #163+, e.g. 'Mythos Quest' April 8, 2026); covering Claude models, AI governance, and ongoing developments
- **2026-01** — Announced 2026 goal: do more coding, publish fewer words but go deeper with evergreen long-form posts
- **2025-12** — Published comprehensive '2025 Year in Review' on Substack
- **2025-01** — Published '2025 State of AI Report and Predictions'
- **2024-08** — Gave public talk at Seminars at Steamboat: 'AI and Our Future: Public Policy Dimensions'
- **2024-01** — Published Balsa Research 2024 update on Substack

## Links

- Website: https://thezvi.substack.com
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/zvi-mowshowitz-27764419/
- Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/TheZvi

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Profile page: https://yespress.io/zvi-mowshowitz
Published by YesPress — https://yespress.io
Last updated: 2026-04-23