# Robin Hanson

> Robin Hanson is an American economist at George Mason University who builds markets that turn opinions into prices. He pioneered prediction markets in the late 1980s, invented the logarithmic market scoring rule that underpins many modern betting and crypto markets, and proposed futarchy, a system of governance where we 'vote on values but bet on beliefs.' He is the author of The Age of Em, a detailed forecast of a civilization run by emulated human brains, and co-author of The Elephant in the Brain, which argues most of our behavior is driven by hidden, self-serving motives we'd rather not admit. He blogs at Overcoming Bias and coined the term 'the Great Filter.'

- **Role:** Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University
- **Organizations:** George Mason University, Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford University), Foresight Institute, Consensus Point
- **Nationality:** American
- **Education:** BS in Physics, University of California, Irvine, MS in Physics, University of Chicago, MA in Conceptual Foundations of Science, University of Chicago, PhD in Social Science, California Institute of Technology
- **Known for:** Pioneered the theory and practical use of prediction markets starting in 1988, Invented the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR), now widely used in prediction markets and crypto automated market makers, Proposed 'futarchy', a form of governance based on prediction markets

## Career timeline

- **1984-1993** — Research programmer on AI, Bayesian statistics, and hypertext publishing at Lockheed and NASA
- **1988** — Began pioneering work on prediction markets (idea futures / information markets)
- **1990** — Principal architect of the first internal corporate prediction market, at Xanadu
- **1994** — Helped create the Foresight Exchange, one of the first web-based prediction markets
- **1997** — Earned PhD in social science from Caltech; dissertation 'Four Puzzles in Information and Politics'
- **2001-2003** — Architect of DARPA's Policy Analysis Market (FutureMAP), controversially cancelled by Congress
- **2006** — Launched the blog Overcoming Bias, originally co-written with Eliezer Yudkowsky
- **2010-2015** — Helped build IARPA's combinatorial prediction markets DAGGRE and SCICAST
- **2016** — Published The Age of Em with Oxford University Press
- **2018** — Published The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler
- **2021** — Published research on the 'grabby aliens' model of cosmic expansion

## Achievements

- Pioneered the theory and practical use of prediction markets starting in 1988
- Invented the Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule (LMSR), now widely used in prediction markets and crypto automated market makers
- Proposed 'futarchy', a form of governance based on prediction markets
- Coined the term 'the Great Filter' as a framing for the Fermi paradox
- Developed the 'grabby aliens' model explaining humanity's apparent early arrival in the universe
- Author of The Age of Em (Oxford University Press, 2016)
- Co-author of The Elephant in the Brain (Oxford University Press, 2018)
- Over 3,000 academic citations across more than 60 publications spanning economics, physics, AI, and philosophy

## Latest updates

- **2021-04** — Published the 'grabby aliens' model with co-authors, arguing a selection effect explains why humanity appears early in cosmic history.
- **2026-06** — Continues to publish at Overcoming Bias (now on Substack) and remains active as an economics professor at George Mason University.

## Links

- Website: https://www.overcomingbias.com/
- Twitter/X: https://x.com/robinhanson

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Profile page: https://yespress.io/robin-hanson
Published by YesPress — https://yespress.io
Last updated: 2026-06-02