# Leopold Aschenbrenner

> Leopold Aschenbrenner turned a widely read AI forecast into Situational Awareness, an investment firm whose public book paired long positions in AI infrastructure with short positions in software. The two legs looked different but depended on the same outcome: fast, market-rewarded AI adoption. After the trade reversed in July 2026, reported three-to-four-times leverage magnified losses and margin pressure forced the sale of most public equities to Citadel. The episode is a compact lesson in correlation, volatility drag, liquidity and the difference between having a compelling forecast and building a portfolio that can survive being early.

## Achievements

- Graduated as the 2021 valedictorian of Columbia College at age 19.
- Co-founded and co-organized Columbia College Effective Altruism.
- Published Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, a 165-page AI forecast that became widely discussed in technology and policy circles.
- Built Situational Awareness LP from a new firm in 2024 into a multi-billion-dollar investment manager.
- Reported a 439 percent net return for the first half of 2026 in an investor letter reviewed by the Financial Times; that gain preceded a severe July drawdown.

## Latest updates

- **2026-07** — Situational Awareness sold most of its public-equity book to Citadel after AI-linked longs fell, software shorts rose and lenders demanded collateral.
- **2026-07** — Reports placed the remaining fund assets at roughly $8 billion to $10 billion, including a large private stake in Anthropic; private-fund valuations are not independently audited in public.
- **2026-08** — Patrick Boyle published a detailed video explaining the unwind through correlation, leverage, the Kelly criterion and volatility drag.

## Links

- Website: https://situational-awareness.ai/
- Twitter/X: https://x.com/leopoldasch

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Published by YesPress — https://yespress.io
Last updated: 2026-08-13